China’s exports to the United States surged in the last month of 2024 as traders rushed to beat new tariffs that President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to impose as soon as he takes office on Monday.

China’s exports to the U.S. peaked in December at $48.8 billion, the highest monthly total of 2024, according to a report this week from China’s General Administration of Customs. That was a 16% year-over-year increase from December 2023.

Experts said the December surge was likely related to anticipated tariff hikes, pushing traders to accelerate shipments out of China. Trump has made multiple statements that he intends to impose tariffs on goods from China. He frequently mentions a 60% tariff, but on the campaign trail threatened tariffs as high as 100%.

“We can't see into the motives of people, but it does look like there's some stockpiling or preordering with the expectation that there will be tariffs coming,” said Mary Lovely, an economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a think tank based in Washington, D.C. 

Should you stockpile to avoid tariffs?

While traders may be stocking up, it would be impractical for American consumers to do it for everything they buy, Lovely said.

“You don't want to stock up on things that you might not need,” she said, “but if you are contemplating, say, for example, buying a laptop or a new phone, then I would go ahead and do it.”

Manufacturers are buying goods such as machinery and auto parts before Trump imposes tariffs and the price of the equipment rises sharply, said Nico Palesch, a senior economist at Oxford Economics who specializes in global industries.

The practice is called front-loading.

The December surge in those types of imports “suggests there is front-loading going on,” Palesch said.

The strategy can be effective if it buys manufacturers time to find alternative suppliers in other countries or if they believe the U.S. and China will reach a deal that avoids tariffs.

Otherwise, he said, the benefits are limited. The companies will save some money in the short-term but “it’s essentially putting off the problem for another day.”

Those orders combined with stronger consumer demand for goods to drive imports higher, Palesch said: “U.S. demand for imports is quite strong.”

China's exports hit record levels

Aside from a spike in exports in December 2021 when economic activities picked up right after the pandemic, China’s exports to the U.S. at the end of last year hit a decadelong high. 

China’s exports to the U.S. totaled over $524 billion last year, about 5% higher than the country’s exports to the U.S. in 2023. 

China's worldwide exports reached record levels in 2024 at $3.5 trillion, according to the nation's customs administration.

Wang Lingjun, vice minister of the customs administration, summarized the China-U.S. trade in 2024 at a news conference early this week: “We imported agricultural goods, energy products, pharmaceuticals, and aircraft from the United States, and exported clothing, consumer electronics, household appliances and more, achieving a win-win situation."

Last year, China’s trade surplus with the U.S. was $361 billion, a third of its record-high total trade surplus, of almost $1 trillion. 

China ranked as the U.S.’s third-largest trading partner, after Mexico and Canada, according to the U.S. Census trade data. Trump has proposed raising tariffs on imports from all three countries. 

Will tariffs increase prices?

Experts widely agree that Americans will face higher prices in stores if tariffs rise.

China is the dominant supplier for many categories of U.S. imports, according to a study from the Peterson Institute. That includes nearly three quarters of toys and sports equipment, over a quarter of electronics and electrical machinery, about one-fourth of textiles and clothing, and one-fifth of plastics and rubber.

A tariff is a tax importers pay on foreign-made products when they come across the border. Other factors such as supply and demand would affect exactly how much of the tariff would be passed on to American consumers, the Petersen study states, but “the only certainty is that new tariffs will be costly for the United States.” 

“Consumers will see it,” said Lovely, who was a co-author of the study.

Consumers ultimately will pay for tariffs that are imposed on imported goods, said Darpan Seth, CEO of Nextuple, a software company providing order management systems for retailers whose clients include Dick's Sporting Goods, Disney and Coach, in a previous interview with USA TODAY. 

“For consumers, tariffs are like another form of inflation, just spelled differently,” Seth said. “They have the same effect of rising prices.” 

Consumers and retailers have reacted to anticipated tariffs and potential price increases on goods like electronics, washing machines and refrigerators. Seth previously told USA TODAY that sales figures for these categories went up on Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

Contributing: Paul Davidson and Betty Lin-Fisher, USA TODAY