The beer, spirits and wine industries were already prepared for a continued lull in sales for 2025, then came the U.S. surgeon general's call for cancer warning labels on alcoholic beverages.

Add that buzz kill to a flight of other challenges facing the booze business: Dry January – and its sober-curious companion in fall, Sober October – along with the thriving year-round embrace of lower-alcohol and non-alcohol options, especially by younger consumers.

Suddenly, moderation is sweeping the nation. Nearly half of Americans (49%) say they plan to drink less in 2025 – up from 41% who said that was their plan in 2024, according to a new survey, released Tuesday, commissioned by advertising and sales measurement technology firm NCSolutions.

Leading the way: Generation Z, or adults ages 18 to 28, almost two-thirds of whom (65%) say they plan to drink less in 2025. Nearly four out of 10 in Gen Z (39%) said they will adopt a dry lifestyle in 2025.

Back in 2023, about one-third of Americans (34%) surveyed said they planned to drink less. NCSolutions CEO Alan Miles thought the findings might be a reaction to the pandemic: "People were maybe hitting the bottle a little too hard. Everyone was stressed out."

Now, with a 3-year accelerating trend, "it really feels more like a genuine cultural shift based, not on any morality of alcohol and drinking, but really on a sense that people want a healthy lifestyle," Miles told USA TODAY.

Gen Z and millennials also are more likely to try alternatives to alcohol such as THC drinks, marijuana and edibles. "It's not that people don't necessarily want escapism. It's just that they are not choosing alcohol to do it," Miles said.

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Total alcohol sales at stores down in 2024

This sober curious movement has affected change at the cash register. Total alcohol sales – beer, wine, spirits, seltzers, ready-to-drink cocktails – fell for the first time in three years, dipping less than 1% in 2024 to $112.9 billion from $113.6 billion in 2023, according to data firm NIQ's tracking of sales in U.S. supermarkets, drug stores, mass-merchandise stores, convenience stores and liquor stores for the 52-week period ending Jan. 4, 2025.

During the pandemic, "people were drinking to cope with the shutdown, so we really had a robust time," said Rachel Lawson, an alcohol and hospitality law attorney at Dickinson Wright in Nashville. "This is what I consider to be the natural valley to that peak."

The percentage of Americans in 2024 who said they drink beer, liquor or wine in 2024 came in at 58%, according to Gallup. That's down from 67% in 2022 and a high of 71% in 1976-1978 period.

The good news for the alcohol beverage industry: A recent USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll suggests few (18%) planned to drink less after Surgeon General Dr. Vivek Murthy's advisory warning that consumption can increase cancer risk. Overall, 86% said they had no plans to drink less alcohol after the pronouncement.

Still, the sober curious movement is having an effect. "We've already seen this trend among consumers where they're opting for moderation, and that's why we're seeing the growth of non-alcohol products and a lot of suppliers are putting out lower alcohol products," said Kaleigh Theriault, associate director of beverage alcohol thought leadership at NIQ. "So this trend of moderation, I think, is only going to continue."

Non-alcoholic beer and low alcohol on the rise

As sales of alcoholic beverages have plateaued, sales of non-alcoholic beer, drinks and spirits have intensified, up 27% in 2024. Consumers spent $829.2 million on non-alcoholic options in 2024, according to NIQ.

NA beer accounts for most of the non-alcoholic spending, with sales up nearly 25% to $699.2 million.

Among the newest entries, Bero, a line of non-alcoholic beers co-founded by actor Tom Holland. "I fell in love with the non-alcoholic space. It really helped me get through the first year of sobriety," Holland says in a video on the Bero website. "With Bero, I felt there was so much opportunity, not just to create a fantastic beer, but to also make a product that makes it simpler to live your best life."

Holland's involvement – Men's Health magazine ran an interview earlier this month in which the actor mentioned Bero – could help the newcomer compete with top no-alcohol beers from Athletic, Budweiser and Heineken.

That's because Gen Z and millennials may follow the lead of celebrities and influencers. More than 1 in 4 (28%) of Gen Z and millennials in the NCSolutions survey said they had tried an alcohol-free drink endorsed by a celebrity or influencer. 

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Well-known breweries have been embracing the NA beer game with Boston Beer, which brought its non-alcoholic Samuel Adams Just the Haze IPA to market in 2021, adding a Gold Rush lager two years later. Since launching its Trail Pass IPA and Trail Pass Golden NA beers in late 2023, Sierra Nevada Brewing Co. has added Trail Pass Hazy IPA and Brewveza.

Most non-alcoholic beers contain about 0.5% alcohol, but there are a growing number of zero alcohol beers including top-seller Heineken 0.0 and Bud Zero. Due to hit stores soon: Michelob Ultra Zero.

For hop heads, there's even hop-flavored water. One of the newest is Hop Water by Allagash, a carbonated drink made with hops and orange peel.

There's a growing variety of non-alcoholic spirits, wine, champagne and mocktails to choose from, too.

Non-alcohol options are increasing at bars, restaurants and other activities with 37% of those surveyed saying they've noticed more restaurants, bars and stores offering nonalcoholic options. "I am stunned when I don't see one at a various bars and hotels," Lawson said. "I literally tell them … you might want to consider getting one real quick."

Beer: Modelo Especial still the king, but more imports could emerge

Total beer sales dipped slightly in the U.S. in 2024, but consumers kept choosing Modelo Especial, which took the top spot from Bud Light in 2023. Sales of Modelo Especial rose about 7% to remain the top-selling beer in the U.S., based on spending, according to NIQ. (Bud Light is still the top seller in terms of volume.)

Overall, beer sales at retail dipped slightly in 2024 at $56.8 billion, compared to $57.2 billion the year before, according to NIQ.

There's room for Modelo Especial to grow – and for more competition, especially from other imports, said Dave Williams, vice president of analytics and insight for Bump Williams Consulting of Shelton, Connecticut, which services the alcoholic beverage industry.

Constellation Brands' portfolio includes Modelo and Corona as well as Pacifico, "another rising star from Constellation," Williams said. "I think we’ll also see the quiet/tactical rise of Central American Imports as well" including Famosa and Toña, lagers from Guatemala and Nicaragua, respectively.

Those beer sales figures include flavored malt beverages such as Twisted Tea, one of the beer sub-categories that helped keep overall category sales stable, Williams said.

Other hot categories beyond imports were flavored beers and super premium beers such as Michelob Ultra, he said.

Another trend in beer – a nod to the moderation movement – is lower alcohol beer. Dogfish Head is just now bringing to market a new 30 Minute Light IPA (alcohol content is 4%) to its lineup, which already included Slightly Mighty Low Calorie IPA (4% ABV and 95 calories).

Spirits: Ready-to-drink cocktails

Sales of spirits rose slightly in 2024, hitting $33.3 billion, up from $33.1 billion in 2023, according to NIQ.

While spirits have also faced stalled growth, spirits-based ready-to-drink cocktails such as High Noon continued double-digit growth providing "a boost to overall trends," Williams said.

Prepared spirits-based cocktails sales increased more than 18%, accounting for $3.2 billion in sales in 2024, NIQ said. Their availability in convenience stores help fuel sales growth, Williams said.

Ready-to-drink cocktails – including those flavored malt beverages that fall in the beer category – should continue to rise because they are also easy to serve and come in a multitude of flavors, making them a fit for younger consumers. "This really is a preference for them," said Emily Xu, senior vice president for e-commerce and marketing at RNDC, the second largest alcohol distributor in the U.S.

Growth could also come from some consumers "trading down a little bit" from higher-priced super-premium and premium spirits and opting for more affordable options, she said.

Consumers could also benefit from spirits brands, faced with stagnant sales, pulling some less successful products from the market. "I think a lot of brands will really be thinking about right-sizing their portfolio," she said.

The Wall Street Journal is among outlets declaring there's a bourbon glut, a situation that could worsen if the Trump administration imposes tariffs on goods such as Canadian whisky and tequila and beer made in Mexico. That could lead to reciprocative tariffs on U.S.-made bourbon and whiskeys.

The spirits category is making some news this month. A new Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau rule went into effect Jan. 19 establishing American Single Malt Whiskey as a new spirit category – the first new whiskey style in five decades. Among the requirements: it's made from 100% malted barley, just as single malt Scotch is made.

American Single Malt Whiskey can be aged differently than bourbon whiskey – virgin American white oak casks are not required – so that "really creates a whole different set of directions you can take the flavor profile of that whiskey," said Justin Aden, head blender at Stranahan’s Colorado Whiskey, which has been making American single malt for 20 years.

The new rule should bring attention to the style. "We're very, very proud to see this moment ... and we're excited for what it's going to bring on a wider curiosity and recognition level," Aden told USA TODAY.

Wine sales continue downward trend

Wine sales slipped 2.5% to $22.8 billion from $23.4 billion in 2023, according to NIQ.

"Wine is going to continue to face declines, but I think they are also the category that has the biggest opportunity, potentially, especially from an occasion standpoint," NIQ's Theriault said.

As with distillers, wine makers are expanding their lower-alcohol and non-alcoholic beverages, she said.

Wine in smaller 375 ml bottles, as opposed to traditional 750 ml bottles – and spirits in smaller bottles, too – are seeing "moderate growth" among some consumers, "because that's a way also to moderate the cost," Xu said.

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Still, within the alcoholic beverage industry, "there's a correction going on, to be honest," Xu said. "In general, the industry has been in decline in the last few years. I think you're going to see continued softness."

While certain brands do well, others may not, she said. "The beverage alcohol category itself is still a very big category, the consumption behavior or the customer is still there, which is just not evenly distributed," Xu said.

Alcoholic beverages will "continue to be that, that social connecting point, I think, in a lot of cases," Theriault said. "Many consumers will opt for alternatives during certain occasions, but there's still going to be a group of consumers that opt for alcohol during many occasions."

Follow Mike Snider on X and Threads: @mikesnider & mikegsnider.

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